Weather system tied to warming sea surface expected to intensify in fall and winter, persisting until early spring 2027

El Niño, a recurring climate phenomenon marked by above-average sea surface temperatures, when changes in wind patterns allow warmer water to spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, could spell a wet winter for portions of the western and south-eastern US, climate models show. Coastal areas may be at elevated risk of flooding, experts warn.

Climate scientists predict this year’s “super” El Niño, a label assigned when sea surface temperatures climb by at least 2C, will be the strongest of the century. The weather system is expected to intensify in the fall and winter, persisting until early spring 2027, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa).